The feel-good stories and underdogs are gone — eliminated through the first two rounds. Even Alex Bowman, who went from being the fourth driver at HMS to one of the strongest playoff drivers, has now been eliminated after an unfortunate DQ. Half of the eight remaining title contenders are former Cup champions. In fact, every champ from the last four seasons is still in the fight, and all four Championship 4 drivers from last year remain as well. There are no weak links, which should make for a thrilling and dramatic Round of 8 as four of them will see their title hopes shatter into pieces while the other four move on to Phoenix.
Sitting atop the standings is Kyle Larson, the clear championship favorite. He has more wins, more top-fives, and more laps led than anyone else this season. There’s really not more to say about him beyond the fact that he is ‘the guy’ until one of the other prove otherwise, but there’s plenty that could.
Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro
Photo by: Rusty Jarrett / NKP / Motorsport Images
For example, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott. NASCAR’s Most Popular Driver and the 2020 series champion only has one win this year, but he leads the entire pack in best average finish (11.7). He has been nothing if not consistent, ever-present in the front-half of the field and likely to make some noise in the races ahead. After a dismal 2023 where a broken leg derailed his entire year, he has carefully made his way through the mayhem and unpredictability of this year’s championship without ever truly feeling the pressure of being eliminated. He even entered the Round of 12 cut-off race on the bubble, but he was never really part of that tense storyline as he quickly scored a mountain of stage points.
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports, Kelley Blue Book Chevrolet Camaro
Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images
The only two-time Cup champion in the Round of 8 is a bit of surprise, considering the fact that he was out at the checkered flag last weekend. Bowman’s disqualification nearly three hours later paved the way for his playoff re-entry. Joey Logano, who won the title in 2018 and 2022, is one of just two drivers to win multiple titles under this volatile playoff format. Team Penske is also looking for its third straight Cup title in the Next Gen era, but despite Logano’s resume, he has actually underperformed compared to recent seasons. Despite this, he has shown the ability to step it up when the moment demands it, and that’s nothing new for Logano. Likely the most aggressive driver still in the title fight, he has won at all four tracks that end the 2024 season.
Joey Logano, Team Penske, Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang
Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images
Then there’s his Penske teammate and reigning champion Ryan Blaney. Despite scoring just one point at Watkins Glen in the Round of 16 and crashing out heavily at Talladega to finish a season-worst of 39th, he remains in contention. Like Logano, he knows how to step it up when the pressure is on. In every other playoff race, he’s scored anywhere between 33 and 53 points per race. No driver has ever won back-to-back championships in this knockout format, but the the feisty driver of the No. 12 just might.
Ryan Blaney, Team Penske, Discount Tire Ford Mustang
Photo by: John Harrelson / NKP / Motorsport Images
So, half of the remaining title combatants have already won championships, including the last four from 2020 – 2023. They are here for a reason, but the challengers who have yet to hoist the Bill France Cup are just as competitive.
For example, there’s Denny Hamlin, despite a somewhat rocky playoff run so far. He’s also got a lot going on right now with a contentious lawsuit against NASCAR involving the team he co-owns, but as a driver, he is the most successful to ever race that has yet to win a Cup title. Three Daytona 500 victories, 54 Cup wins, and five consecutive seasons finishing fifth or higher in the final standings. He has never missed the playoffs since this format was introduced in 2014, and he is perhaps the hungriest driver here. We’ve seen him wall his good friend Larson for wins, we’ve seen him get into physical altercations with Logano (more than once), and he thrives off of fans’ shower of boos every time he wins. This is the exact sort of driver you want going into this round, which is more a battlefield than a stock car race. He will do whatever it takes to smash through that glass ceiling and become a champion.
Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, FedEx One Rate Toyota Camry
Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images
And what about the third Hendrick driver to advance? William Byron started the year by winning three of the first eight races, including the Daytona 500. However, we haven’t seen him in Victory Lane since April. But the driver of the No. 24 appears to be finding his footing just in time for the final stretch. He scored three straight podium finishes in the Round of 12, scoring so many points that he didn’t even need to win in order to lock himself into this round early. It would be foolish to count him out.
William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports, Valvoline Chevrolet Camaro
Photo by: John Harrelson / NKP / Motorsport Images
Tyler Reddick is perhaps the most interesting driver on this list. 23XI Racing has never made it beyond the Round of 8, and neither has Reddick. Of course, there’s also that lawsuit hanging over them. Reddick drove like a champion at Roval, using fresh tires to cut through the field in closing laps, erasing the double-digit points deficit and narrowly escaping elimination. Some might be quick to disregard him but we should remember that this driver won the regular season championship. He has heavily relied on those bonus points through what has been a rough playoffs, but this is a driver who just showed the world that he can extract everything and then some out of the car when his back is against the wall. After that late charge at the Roval, he’s already proven to be championship material.
Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing, Monster Energy Toyota Camry Justin Haley, Spire Motorsports, Mattress Warehouse Chevrolet Camaro Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports, UniFirst Chevrolet Camaro Joey Logano, Team Penske, Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang
Photo by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Images
So that’s it for thi — wait, aren’t we missing someone? Oh right … Christopher Bell! As he himself will tell you, everyone always overlooks the driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. And there is really no good reason for it. He is quiet and makes little noise on the track, but he is always a contender. Bell is the only driver to have made the Championship 4 in both years of the Next Gen era. He has also finished seventh or higher in seven of the last eight races — the only result worse than that was 14th. He is consistent, ever-present and a very legitimate title threat. Before the playoffs, this writer picked him to win it all for all the reasons we just covered. He is NASCAR’s ‘silent assassin.’ People always wonder where Bell came from when the big prize is in sight, but he’s always been right there, but nobody — including his rivals — seem to realize that until it’s too late.
Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, DEWALT Toyota Camry
Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images