The FCS playoff selection show is days away and with one game left to play, it’s time to take a look at the FCS at-large bubble. Let’s take a deep dive into all of the cases of teams on the edge of the playoff field.
Guarantee-ish
First, we’ll start with the six at-larges that have almost a guaranteed shot — in my opinion — to earn an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs regardless of Week 13’s results:
No. 5 UC Davis
UC Davis is in the playoffs as an at-large. The Aggies beat Idaho and Montana while its nonconference win over Southern Utah ages well. With its only FCS loss to-date coming to Montana State, UC Davis is in no matter what happens in Week 13.
No. 8 Idaho
Idaho has two FCS losses, an FBS win, a win over conference champion Abilene Christian and a win over bubble team Northern Arizona. Few on the bubble will contend with Idaho’s resume, even if the Vandals were to lose to Idaho State to close the season.
No. 10 Montana
Montana will definitely be in the FCS playoffs if it beats Montana State, a potential No. 1 seed entering the final weekend. If Montana loses the Brawl of the Wild, I think it still gets in with an 8-4 record. A nonconference win over Western Carolina, a win over Northern Arizona and a win over the soon-to-be FBS Missouri State are all good enough to be worthy of an at-large, even with four FCS losses, especially given the losses to bubble teams last week.
No. 15 Rhode Island
Rhode Island’s only “FCS” loss has come to Delaware, a team transitioning to the FCS. The Rams will be in if they win, and if they lose, they’ll still be in with only one true FCS loss out of the CAA.
Two of No. 1 North Dakota State, No. 3 South Dakota State and No. 4 South Dakota
One of North Dakota State, South Dakota State and South Dakota will receive the MVFC’s auto-bid. The two that don’t automatically make the playoffs will still be in as the trio has stacked the top five of the FCS rankings all season.
Conference races that could impact at-large spots
No. 11 Southeast Missouri State
If Southeast Missouri State wins, it receives the Big South-OVC auto bid. If it loses, it could still win the auto-bid, but if it doesn’t, SEMO will have lost two of its last three games. SEMO will have wins over UT Martin and Tennessee Tech, two teams currently on the bubble. However, if Tennessee Tech isn’t the auto-bid, that means the Golden Eagles lost, knocking them from the bubble.
With a head-to-head win over UT Martin, SEMO will get in over the Skyhawks if it comes down to it. I also think a two-FCS-loss SEMO will get into the playoff as only four FCS bubble teams have two or fewer FCS losses.
No. 19 Duquesne
If Duquesne wins, it receives the NEC automatic bid. If it loses, the Dukes will be a one-FCS-loss 8-3 team. A loss to Central Connecticut State the day before the committee meets will hurt the Dukes in the at-large picture, but with a nonconference win over Youngstown State (still an MVFC team even if it’s near the bottom this year), I think the Dukes will be in the playoffs win or lose.
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Win and in
No. 13 Illinois State
Illinois State might be in the postseason tournament even with a loss. I’m not ready to guarantee that yet because it’ll depend on how the rest of the field shakes out, but I can guarantee that Illinois State will be in with a win. The Redbirds have only lost to North Dakota State and Missouri State in the FCS. With those as the only two-losses, the fourth-best eligible MVFC team will be in the playoffs.
No. 14 Villanova
Villanova should be in with a win. With wins over Stony Brook and New Hampshire, the Wildcats will have the head-to-head edge in the battle for the third CAA team in the playoffs, and a win over Delaware would be the icing on Villanova’s playoff cake. With a loss, those head-to-head wins could still get the Wildcats into the playoffs, but losses to Maine and Monmouth will come into question.
No. 16 Tarleton State
Tarleton State was a top-10 team entering November. It has since lost two of its last three games. However, if it beats a Central Arkansas team that is hanging on to the playoff bubble by a thread (more on them later), the Texans should be in the 24-team field with only two FCS losses. With a loss things will be interesting for Tarleton State as that will give it three FCS losses, especially with Eastern Kentucky’s — a team it lost to — late season rise.
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FCS bubble
Here’s who’s left on the bubble, listed by FCS Coaches poll ranking and then alphabetically by conference.
Big Sky
Northern Arizona
Case for (with win)
NAU will have won five straight games once it beats Eastern Washington, a long streak as it approaches the playoff committee. The Lumberjacks only have three FCS losses to Montana, Idaho and UIW, all playoff teams. Consistency at the end of the season and zero bad losses can get Northern Arizona in.
Case against (with win)
NAU played a non-DI opponent so the Lumberjacks would only have seven DI wins in front of the committee. When looking for a standout win, NAU doesn’t really have one — none of its wins have come over teams with a winning record. That keeps the Lumberjacks out of the playoffs
Big South-OVC
No. 24 UT Martin
Case for (with win)
UT Martin would be 8-4 with an FBS win and it took Southeast Missouri State to 2OT in a loss. UT Martin’s other loss was to Missouri State, a team that’s going to be FBS next year, and Tennessee Tech last week. When comparing resumes, that FBS win will hold plenty of weight, getting the Skyhawks into the bracket.
Case against (with win)
UT Martin might have an FBS win, but its best FCS win is over Tennessee State. It’s strength of schedule is only 49th, so there could be another team on the bubble over it in the committee’s eyes.
No. 25 Tennessee State
Case for (with win)
Tennessee State will have beat a very good Southeast Missouri State team to close the season, a resume boosting win ahead of the playoffs. In the L column, the Tigers lost to North Dakota State, Tennessee Tech and UT Martin. Those are all winning teams, albeit two from the same conference. However, a win over Southeast Missouri State could offset those losses in the eyes of the committee, getting TSU into the postseason.
Case against (with win)
Tennessee State’s losses to Tennessee Tech and UT Martin, two other bubble teams put Tennessee State behind them even with a win. With the bubble only being so big, there’s not enough room for all three to get in so Tennessee State is left out.
Tennessee Tech
Case for (with win)
Tennessee Tech may have five losses and a 7-5 record, but two were two FBS opponents and two came to FCS conference champions, assuming Southeast Missouri State wins. Tennessee Tech beat Tennessee State and UT Martin — the other two bubble teams from the Big South-OVC — head-to-head. The Golden Eagles also defeated Samford, a team that dominated bubble team Chattanooga and defeated potential top-eight seed Mercer.
A loss to Western Illinois can be overlooked with those wins and Tennessee Tech is in.
Case against (with win)
Tennessee Tech lost to Western Illinois, a team with only three wins on the season. When comparing losses from the Golden Eagles to teams from other conferences, that lost stands out and bursts Tennessee Tech’s bubble.
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CAA
No. 20 Stony Brook
Case for (with win)
If Stony Brook beats Monmouth, it should be in the playoffs. The Seawolves will only have two FCS losses and after last week where other bubble teams lost, a 9-3 team will be hard to keep out.
Case for (with loss)
Even with a loss, Stony Brook will only have three FCS losses. The Seawolves may be behind New Hampshire on the bubble, but few others should be in front of them still. Stony Brook’s win over William & Mary isn’t going to shake the table, but it’s a good enough win to be at the table and offset a pair of late-season loss
Case against (with loss)
If Stony Brook loses its second-straight game to close the season, it’ll have three FCS losses on the year with its best win being over William & Mary. That win won’t stack up to the wins of bubble teams like Southern Utah, Eastern Kentucky or Tennessee Tech even if those programs might have fewer losses. That keeps the Seawolves out of the playoffs.
New Hampshire
Case for (with win)
New Hampshire will have an 8-4 record with three FCS losses to Harvard, Rhode Island and Villanova. Harvard isn’t eligible, but all three of those losses are to playoff quality teams. New Hampshire also picked up a great win over Stony Brook, another team on the playoff bubble. If the Wildcats defeat Maine, they’ll be in the playoffs.
Case for (with loss)
New Hampshire would still have a win over Stony Brook, even if it loses to Maine to close the season. When it comes to four-FCS-loss teams, that win gives New Hampshire an edge, especially if Stony Brooks gets into the playoffs too.
Case against (with loss)
New Hampshire would be 7-5 with four losses against FCS foes if it falters against Maine. UNH’s nonconference schedule doesn’t move the needle and it only has one quality win. That resume isn’t strong enough with a deep bubble.
William & Mary
Case for (with win)
If William & Mary beats Richmond, I think it will be in the playoffs. Richmond has already won the CAA auto-bid and is a top-10 team in the country. A win over the Spiders would be a better win than almost any bubble team could have. With William & Mary only having three FCS losses at 8-4 with a Week 13 win, it’ll be in the playoffs.
Case against (with win)
Even a win over Richmond won’t be enough to get William & Mary into the playoffs. A loss to Stony Brook puts the Tribe behind the Seawolves and the Seawolves may already be behind New Hampshire who beat it. That puts William & Mary behind two CAA bubble teams, and that’s not including Villanova. There might just not be enough spots for the Tribe to get in.
MEAC
North Carolina Central
Case for (with win)
North Carolina Central will enter selections with only two FCS losses. That’s one of the better resumes when it comes to the loss column of any bubble team. With a 14.7 average margin of victory, the wins are impressive too, even if the opponents aren’t the strongest. It’ll be a close call, but NCCU returns to the playoffs.
Case against (with win)
North Carolina Central’s strength of schedule is weak and it played a non-DI opponent. That means the Eagles will finish with only seven FCS wins. A blowout win over Campbell is nice, but that performance means nothing when NCCU got blown out AT HOME by Elon, a team not in playoff contention. When your team’s best win is over a 5-5 Alabama State, it’s not enough to get a playoff spot.
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SoCon
Chattanooga
Case for (with win)
Chattanooga will be 7-5 with only three FCS losses. That’s fewer FCS losses than any other SoCon team on the bubble. The Mocs also have a ranked win over ETSU on its resume. Even with a loss to Western Carolina and Samford, Chattanooga has the second-best resume of any SoCon team. When comparing the Mocs to other bubble teams from different conferences, few can say they have three or fewer FCS losses. That gets Chattanooga in.
Case against (with win)
A 23-point loss to Samford two weeks before the playoffs is too big for Chattanooga to overcome. With Chattanooga, Western Carolina and ETSU all neck-and-neck on the bubble, the Mocs have the worst conference loss of the trio. That keeps UTC out.
ETSU
Case for (with win)
At 7-5, ETSU will have a win over bubble team Western Carolina with only four FCS losses. Of those losses, none have come by more than one possession, including a three-point loss to potential No. 1 seed North Dakota State; it was the closest win the Bison had all year. ETSU has shown itself to be competitive, even in defeat and it should get the nod as the second SoCon team.
Case against (with win)
First, ETSU will only have six DI wins since it played UVA-Wise. ETSU also lost to a three-win Furman team and Chattanooga, a fellow bubble team. A win over Western Carolina helps, but the Catamounts might also be on the outside looking in. With six DI wins to other bubble team’s seven, ETSU won’t have enough to get in the playoffs.
Western Carolina
Case for (with win)
With a win, Western Carolina moves to 7-5 with four FCS losses. Only one of those losses — to Campbell — standout as a bad loss, while the other three losses were to playoff contending teams. A win over Chattanooga head-to-head should hold weight when it comes to deciding between the two SoCon teams and a nonconference win over Elon wasn’t too shabby either.
Case against (with win)
Even at 7-5, Western Carolina could miss the playoffs, The Catamounts lost to ETSU, a fellow bubble team and a loss to Campbell is glaring. WCU’s win over Elon, while ranked at the time, has lost plenty of luster since then as Elon now has a losing record. The Catamounts don’t have a resume that can stack up against other teams on the bubble.
Southland
Southeastern Louisiana
Case for (with win)
Southeastern Louisiana finishes the season 7-5 with only three FCS losses, all to playoff teams. While the Lions don’t have any standout wins, they beat who they were supposed to beat. With every FCS loss being a good loss, SELA returns to the postseason.
Case against (with win)
Everytime Southeastern Louisiana has played a playoff quality team, it’s lost. The Lions are 0-3 against South Dakota State, Tarleton State and UIW. SELA’s best win is either Eastern Washington or Stephen F. Austin, both of which may struggle to be considered quality wins. Zero quality wins keeps Southeastern Louisiana out.
Stephen F. Austin
Case for (with win)
A top-15 win to close the season at 7-5 gets Stephen F. Austin in the playoffs. That win impresses the committee so much it puts the Lumberjacks in.
Case against (with win)
Stephen F. Austin would be entering the playoffs having lost two of its last three games. SFA also would only have six DI wins after beating North American University in the season opener. Even a season-ending win over Abilene Christian isn’t enough to offset a loss head-to-head to Southeastern Louisiana, a team with the same record.
UAC
Central Arkansas
Case for (with win)
A win over Tarleton State is Central Arkansas’ last hope to make the playoffs. Even though the Bears have been on a downward turn across the last month, that win will give Central Arkansas its best win — and only elite win — of the season. At 7-5 with a win like that, the committee puts UCA in the bracket.
Case against (with win)
Central Arkansas will be entering selection Sunday as losers of three of its last four games. Even a win over Tarleton State won’t be enough to overlook UCA’s play down the stretch.
Eastern Kentucky
Case for (with win)
Eastern Kentucky only has two FCS losses to Southern Utah and Abilene Christian. The Colonels will have won five straight games entering the playoffs, with two ranked wins over Tarleton State and Central Arkansas. Late-season momentum gets EKU in the postseason.
Case against (with win)
Head-to-Head matters and Southern Utah beat Eastern Kentucky head-to-head by a wide, 42-21 margin. If Eastern Kentucky is in contention for the playoffs, then Southern Utah has to be too. If the committee values that head-to-head game, now Eastern Kentucky is down one spot on the bubble, and with a less-than-spectacular nonconference schedule, there may not be enough spots to get in.
Case for (with loss)
Even with a loss, Eastern Kentucky will only have three FCS losses. The Colonels should get one of the final bubble spots over a four-FCS loss team.
Case against (with loss)
A loss to North Alabama is a bad loss. Combine that with a lukewarm nonconference schedule, and even a pair of ranked wins in November can’t get Eastern Kentucky into the postseason.
Southern Utah
Case for (with win)
Southern Utah could finish at 7-5 with four FCS losses. However, the Thunderbirds have a wild card that only one other bubble team (UT Martin) can use — an FBS win. Southern Utah’s FBS win over UTEP stands out as do wins over Eastern Kentucky and Central Arkansas, other teams on the bubble. That’s three quality wins in addition to quality losses to UC Davis, Tarleton State and Abilene Christian. While an early loss to Idaho State hurts, Southern Utah’s resume is strong enough to get in.
Case against (with win)
Southern Utah had a late surge towards the postseason, but it isn’t enough to offset a slow start. The Thunderbirds lost to Idaho State, a team not in the upper echelon of the Big Sky. That loss keeps Southern Utah out.