Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for Week 12

The second College Football Playoff Rankings of 2024 are almost here and we enter these rankings with an already pre-established idea of how the CFP committee views each team. Before the CFP committee unveils the next rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will land. 

The second of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Tuesday, Nov. 5 (here’s the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.

2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Week 12 Top 25 projections

These predictions are as of Sunday, November 10. 

1. Oregon (10-0) LW: 1 — As long as Oregon keeps winning, the Ducks will stay at the top.
2. Ohio State (8-1) LW: 2 — A shutout win should put to bed any argument over who should be No. 2 in the country.
3. Texas (8-1) LW: 5 — Expect Texas to move into the top three after Georgia and Miami lost.
4. Tennessee (8-1) LW: 7 — Tennessee’s win over Alabama got more juice after the Tide beat LSU. That small boost will move Tennessee into the top four for the committee.
5. Penn State (8-1) LW: 6 — Penn State won its whiteout game against Washington and will move into the top five.
6. Indiana (10-0) LW: 8 — Is a win over Michigan enough to move Indiana into the top five? I don’t think so, especially not in front of a Tennessee team with a win over Alabama. 
7. BYU (9-0) LW: 9 — BYU won a nail-biter over Utah in the Holy War, but I don’t think a close win will cause the committee to drop the Cougars below a two-loss team.
8. Alabama (7-2) LW: 11 — Alabama should be the No. 8 team in the country after dominating LSU in Death Valley. Until someone ahead of the Tide loses, I don’t think the CFP committee can overlook their two losses.
9. Georgia (7-2) LW: 3 — Georgia was ranked above Miami last week, and it’ll stay above the Hurricanes after losing to a ranked opponent. However, the Bulldogs will fall below Alabama because of head-to-head.
10. Miami (9-1) LW: 4 — Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech on the road is better than Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois at home. Luckily for the Hurricanes, Notre Dame is a floor in these rankings.
11. Ole Miss (7-2) LW: 16 — Ole Miss will be the last at-large team in the bracket this week after handily beating Georgia. South Carolina should be ranked too, giving the Rebels another ranked win on its resume.
12. Notre Dame (8-1) LW: 10 — Notre Dame falls out of the playoff field as Alabama and Ole Miss move in front of it. With only one ranked opponent remaining on the schedule, the committee could send a message about Notre Dame’s stability in the bracket this week.
13. Boise State (8-1) LW: 12 — Boise State will stay in the playoffs as the highest projected conference champion remaining, but it won’t be one of the 12 best teams after a close win over Nevada.
14. SMU (8-1) LW: 13 — SMU won’t move in front of any teams after a bye.
15. Texas A&M (7-2) LW: 14 — Texas A&M won’t move in front of any teams after a bye.
16. Kansas State (7-2) LW: 19 — Kansas State had a bye and will move up after three teams ranked ahead of it lost.
17. Colorado (7-2) LW: 20 — Colorado controls its destiny and could make the CFP as a conference champion. However, its path to becoming a top-12 team has a roadblock with a head-to-head loss to Kansas State. 
18. Washington State (8-1) LW: 21 — Washington State has a long road ahead to become one of the top-12 teams, but it should move up three spots this week.
19. Louisville (6-3) LW: 22 — Louisville stays above Clemson after the Cardinals had a bye.
20. Clemson (6-2) LW: 23 — Last week’s ranking told us that the committee won’t put Clemson in front of Louisville after a head-to-head defeat unless the Tigers get a ranked win.
21. Missouri (6-2) LW: 24 — Missouri’s win over Oklahoma doesn’t hold as much weight as it was thought in the preseason. The Tigers likely have to win an SEC title to make the playoffs based on the committee’s first rankings.
22. Army (9-0) LW: 25 — Army’s win over North Texas wasn’t groundbreaking so the Black Knights won’t enter the top 20 yet.
23. LSU (6-3) LW: 15 — Sometimes it’s about how you lose just as much as it’s about who you lose to. For LSU both will drop the Tigers to the bottom of the top 25. A blowout loss at home is never a good look.
24. South Carolina (6-3) LW: NR — South Carolina beat a good Vanderbilt team a week after beating a ranked Texas A&M team. The Gamecocks will be ranked by the committee this week after feeling snubbed last week.
25. Arizona State (7-2) LW: NR — I think the committee will give Arizona State the final spot in this week’s rankings. The Sun Devils should get the spot over fellow Big 12 school Iowa State, even though the Cyclones were ranked last week. Arizona State has won two straight while Iowa State has lost two straight. An argument could be made to rank Tulane, but I don’t see the committee ranking two teams from the American in their second rankings.

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

What the bracket could look like

First Teams Out: No. 12 Notre Dame, No. 14 SMU, No. 15 Texas A&M 

LOOKING AHEAD: 2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites

Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

How far do Georgia and Miami Fall?

Georgia and Miami will drop from the top three this week. That we know. What we don’t know is where the schools will land. Both schools should be in the top-12, but the teams the committee places in front of the Bulldogs and Hurricanes will show how much room for error both programs have down the stretch.

LAST WEEK’S RECAP: Ole Miss upsets No. 3 Georgia, Georgia Tech stuns No. 4 Miami in Week 11 

How much will Alabama and Ole Miss move up?

Alabama and Ole Miss both picked up statement wins over ranked teams. The Tide were already in the projected playoff bracket last week, but how high could they be this week? Meanwhile, Ole Miss wasn’t one of the first two teams out, but I think a win over the No. 3 team in the country could launch the Rebels into the bracket.

Is it an SEC title or bust for LSU?

LSU might’ve gotten blown out by Alabama at home for its third loss, but it was only the second SEC conference play loss for the Tigers. LSU can still make the playoff by winning the SEC title game, but will they need it? It depends on how low the Tigers are in the second CFP rankings. Anything outside the top 20 likely makes it SEC title game or bust.