NASCAR playoff surprises and the title threats facing elimination

Chris Buescher spoiled the playoff party by winning at Watkins Glen, but he was far from the only one stealing valuable points away from the title contenders. There’s also Ross Chastain, who led half the race and won the second stage. In the end, only one playoff driver finished inside the top-ten in a chaotic race, with several finding trouble on the very first lap — shaking up the standings even more, continuing to prove how unpredictable this year’s Round of 16 was expected to be. Here’s a closer look at where things stand as we close in on the Bristol elimination race.

Surprises near the top

Some drivers are breathing a sigh of relief entering Bristol, but those that are not are also not the names onlookers would have chosen to be on the cusp of elimination just weeks ago. Austin Cindric sits 43 points above the cut-line and is third in the playoff standings. Right behind him is Alex Bowman. Although Bowman drives for Hendrick Motorsports, few would have put him ahead of his three teammates at the start of the playoffs, but that’s exactly where he is. And in fifth is Daniel Suarez, who several picked as a first round exit. After nearly winning at Atlanta and collecting a decent amount of points at The Glen, he is now 36 points up. None of these drivers are locked in, but they have to be feeling fairly safe from elimination going into this race weekend. But with these surprises near the top, it means some of the more serious title threats are now drifting towards the bottom.

Feeling the pressure

A last-place finish at Watkins Glen eroded 16 points from Ryan Blaney’s cushion but luckily for the defending Cup champ, a strong showing at Atlanta leaves him 29 points up. He’s now eighth in the standings, and while not comfortable, he’s feeling better than two members of Hendrick Motorsports.

Kyle Larson, a dominant force throughout the 2024 season, is 26 points up only because of the bucket of bonus points he brought with him. It’s been two rough weeks for the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet, as well as teammate William Byron, who is just one point further behind. And with drivers in the elimination zone fully capable of winning this weekend, their margin is realistically smaller than it shows with a win automatically vaulting any one of those drivers below them into the next round. 

If these drivers are on the hot seat, then things must be on fire in the room where Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs sit. In fairness to Briscoe, he made an incredible comeback at The Glen, coming from 21 points back to being six points up. The fact that he gained 28 points is enough proof to keep drivers like Larson and Byron nervous this weekend. But then there’s Ty Gibbs, making his playoff debut. He hasn’t been flashy on-track this year and that continued into the playoffs. He left Atlanta on the bubble and now Watkins Glen in the same in position, just six points ahead. But in a shocking twist, he is still above half of the Joe Gibbs Racing fleet.

Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing, CW Sports Toyota Camry

Photo by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Images

Now, here’s a surprise. Hamlin is the most successful driver in NASCAR history without a Cup title. Every year, it seems like it might finally be his time, but something always happens to derail his efforts. He just missed out on the Championship 4 in 2022 and 2023, but misfortune is visiting him early in this year’s playoffs. A questionable decision to ride in the back ended in disaster at Atlanta, and a poor qualifying effort at Watkins Glen got him collected in a Lap 1 wreck.

He also lost lost ten bonus points just before the playoffs began due to an engine penalty, which could be critical here. However, there is good news for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota. The elimination race takes place at Bristol where he has four victories — including winning the last two events there. It might be the perfect race for him to try and rescue his season.

Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, FedEx Toyota Camry

Photo by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Images

The 2012 NASCAR Cup champion is another driver with multiple wins at Bristol and more recently, a third-place finish in the spring race. He’s surrounded on all sides by JGR drivers and his situation feels more dire than Hamlin’s. Things just haven’t been going his way over the last few weeks. He has just one top-five in the last 13 races. At Watkins Glen, he was involved in at least three incidents but he never gave up. Despite all that, RFK Racing does have a bit of momentum right now after winning at Watkins Glen with Buescher. I’d put his chances at 50/50 for advancing into the next round.

Brad Keselowski, RFK Racing, King’s Hawaiian Ford Mustang

Photo by: John Harrelson / NKP / Motorsport Images

Oh, Martin. The 2017 NASCAR Cup champion has had a cloud of misfortune following him everywhere he goes since winning the 2023 regular season champion. The last few months have been an unmitigated disaster for the driver of the No. 19 car, despite having speed on a consistent basis. Just look at the recent finishes for MTJ: 20th, 35th, 36th, 24th, 24th, 37th, 27th. He’s averaging a finish of 29th over the last seven races despite an average starting position of 12th over the same period. Bristol is a great track for Truex, but we’re at the point now where we’d be surprised if something doesn’t go wrong. This is Truex’s last full-time season as a Cup driver, but his final title run may be over in the first round if he can’t shake this bad luck.

Martin Truex Jr, Joe Gibbs Racing, Reser’s Fine Foods Toyota Camry

Photo by: Gavin Baker / NKP / Motorsport Images

With all due to respect to Harrison, it would have been a surprise if he wasn’t in this position. The Wood Brothers Racing driver was last among full-time drivers in points before his shock victory at Daytona. Being in the playoffs is a huge moment for him and the No. 21 team, but it was never likely for him to advance beyond the Round of 16. Stranger things have happened, but it’s likely game over for Burton at Bristol.

Harrison Burton, Wood Brothers Racing, Freightliner Ford Mustang

Photo by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Images

Playoff standings after Watkins Glen